The abnormal weather changes of waterlogging in the north and drought in the south have delayed the sowing time in many areas, shortening the time to purchase fertilizers. In addition, the price of urea has been on a downward trend during the spring plowing season, which has affected the enthusiasm of distributors to prepare fertilizers and made them and farmers more cautious in purchasing fertilizers than in previous years. Most compound fertilizer manufacturers have experienced a decline or no increase in sales volume due to this impact. Affected by the flat spring plowing market and the recent downturn in the resource market, the sales of corn fertilizer in summer have become somewhat awkward. Although distributors have been worried that the decline in fertilizer prices will compress their profit margins, as summer planting approaches, they will choose to stock up 60% -70% to meet the upcoming demand for concentrated release of fertilizer by farmers.

The combination of multiple factors affects the speed of market launch

The start-up speed of the spring plowing market this year is too slow. After last year's Spring Festival, the price of urea has been on the rise, but after this year's Spring Festival, the price of urea has been continuously declining, and the price of ammonium phosphate has also been declining. Downstream terminal merchants dare not take goods.

Gao Shujian, the manager of Shandong Chunyu Fertilizer Co., Ltd., said:; The slow start of the market is caused by a combination of multiple factors. Firstly, the international nitrogen fertilizer market has experienced a significant decline; Secondly, due to climate factors, the consumption season in the north and south has been delayed by about 2-3 weeks, shortening the time for purchasing fertilizers; Thirdly, in recent times, domestic energy prices, especially coal, have decreased. The main urea producing enterprises in China are coal based enterprises, and their manufacturing costs have decreased. Therefore, the raw materials for compound fertilizers will definitely also decrease When asked by reporters whether the decrease in raw materials is beneficial for compound fertilizer production enterprises, Gao Shujian replied:; The principle followed by the market is to chase after the rise and kill the fall. The more the market declines, especially for end customers who are more afraid to buy. And downstream terminals will also believe that after the decline in raw materials, manufacturers will definitely make price adjustments, and farmers have not yet reached the peak period of fertilizer use, so they will continue to wait

Meng Lijun, the manager of Yantai Wuzhou Shidefu Fertilizer Co., Ltd., said:; Taking Shanxi as an example, the sales of corn fertilizer have been completed. The wholesale price of 45% sulfur based compound fertilizer in the region is around 2800 yuan per ton, and the wholesale price of 45% chlorine based compound fertilizer is 2500-2600 yuan per ton. The region has cooled down since the beginning of spring this season, and the use of fertilizers has been delayed compared to previous years. The weather change is the biggest reason why dealers dare not stock up, and urea has been declining in spring, affecting sales and dealers' replenishment in the later stage

Centralized release of demand increases pressure on manufacturers

Due to the strong wait-and-see attitude of downstream distributors, the inventory of manufacturers has decreased, and the inventory of manufacturers has increased, which may even affect the sales of summer fertilizer manufacturers. However, as the peak season of fertilizer use approaches, the concentrated release of downstream market demand will inevitably put pressure on manufacturers' production and delivery, and manufacturers may be extremely busy during the peak season. Remote manufacturers are limited by the distance, which affects the shipment volume and delivery time, but this situation will also give local manufacturers the opportunity to occupy the market.

Meng Lijun said: '; The total amount of fertilizer sales in Shanxi has not decreased. Corn was planted in northern Shanxi around April 15th, and sales have now ended. Due to the low temperature, the sowing time has been postponed, and the length of time for ordinary people to purchase fertilizer has been shortened. When the weather warms up, farmers concentrate on using fertilizer, and distributors do not have time to replenish the fertilizer season. Manufacturers from other provinces have no time to ship the fertilizer due to such a short purchase time. Farmers choose ordinary fertilizers from local fertilizer companies nearby, which has a great impact on distant enterprises. After all, distributors have limited funds and cannot stock up all at once

Gao Shujian said: '; Wheat is harvested in the season of May to June in southern Henan, followed by corn planting. In Shandong, wheat is harvested in June and summer corn is immediately planted. Now we are about to face the period of summer fertilizer use, and many downstream distributors can only go to pick up the goods even if they see that the raw materials are decreasing and the prices are not stable, because time is running out. Then there will be a period of concentrated release, and this year is like this. Whether in the south or north, during the peak period of fertilizer use, various manufacturers will definitely be busy because the previous demand was compressed. For example, in April, assuming a manufacturer could produce 10000 tons, now they can only produce 3000 tons, so during the busy season, the manufacturers will definitely be operating at full capacity

Land transfer accelerates market reshuffle speed

With the acceleration of land transfer process, land contract leasing is imperative, and the promotion of cooperatives in rural areas is becoming more and more in-depth. Cooperatives are a development direction for future agricultural material distribution. Gao Shujian said: '; Cooperatives account for 30% or more of the promotion in many provinces, and direct cooperation between manufacturers and cooperatives is definitely the trend. This situation will benefit large enterprises while also testing them. Only enterprises with advantages in brand, channel, agricultural services, and production costs can survive. There are so many compound fertilizer manufacturers now, and the competition is very fierce. With the gradual deepening of cooperatives, many small and medium-sized fertilizer enterprises will quickly go bankrupt in 3-5 years. If domestic second tier manufacturers do not have resource advantages, technological advantages, and brand advantages, they will soon exit the market after a few years. Of course, it may not be so fast, but changes in the industry will be seen within 3-5 years